Dell’Oro gloomy on core network trends – Mobile World Live

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Dell’Oro Group marked a continued slump across the 5G mobile core network market due to economic challenges, as revenue dropped 10 per cent year-on-year in Q1 to just over $1 billion.

Research director Dave Bolan stated the “four-quarter rolling average has developed an ominous downward trend for three quarters as economic headwinds tighten their grip on the market, moving into negative territory in year-over-year growth rate”.

“This suggests that the downward trajectory will last at least one more quarter after the market high in Q1 2023 falls out of the four-quarter rolling average.”

In addition, the 5G MCN market slowed for five quarters in a row.

“Inflation has impacted the ability of some mobile network operators to raise capital and it has also impacted subscribers when it comes to upgrading their phones to 5G,” Bolan wrote.

“Many MNOs have lowered their capex plans and announced that they have fewer-than-expected 5G subscribers on their networks”, limiting their growth plans, Bolan stated.

“As a result, we are lowering our expectations for 2024 from a positive growth rate to a negative one.”

Based on the four-quarter rolling average, the Caribbean and Latin America, EMEA and North American regions are trending into negative territory for growth rates.

Asia Pacific, including China, is trending positive.

Bolan told Mobile World Live the top vendor rankings for manufacturing revenue are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia and ZTE.

By end-Q1, 51 mobile operators had deployed commercial standalone 5G networks, with two launching in the quarter.

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